Peak oil again, a rant!

One of the best ways to ensure sleepless nights is to turn on your computer, log into the internet, punch in the term “peak oil” into a search engine and read the sites you find. “Peak Oil” is the term used to describe the problems when the day comes when demand for crude oil exceeds supply. Some say it is very close, others give it 30 or more years. On the other hand, consumption has exceeded discovery every year since 1981. (BTW This information is taken from the web site of the Society for Chemical Industry, London, an organisation that is not normally considered a bunch of tree huggers.) Basically what you find is that the concept of peak oil does not mean that oil will run out shortly, but that the era of cheap oil is probably coming to an end. What’s cheap oil? Our feeling is it is still cheap, at least seeing the number of cars on local roads. Our neighbours to our left have two cars and those on the right an estate car, a Smart car and a motor bike. Yes we have one too, but we use it less and less. According to Will Hutton writing in today’s “Observer” petrol costs about £1 a litre at some filling stations. Taking inflation into account this is about twice as expensive as it was in the late 60’s.
However a barrel of crude oil costs about $70 at the moment, but the increases in the price of crude oil are amplified by small reductions in supply, even if it is only 1% , because each purchaser thinks that the loss of 1% of the supply i.e. 850000 barrels are his 850000 barrels. The present price of $70 is considered high but it is likely to rise as the Chinese and the Indians buy more and more. Since 2004, China ’s incremental demand for oil has been outstripping that of the rest of the entire world (Society of Chemical Industry, London). We are all dependent on oil. Without it we would starve to death in the dark at the moment. Britain needs to cut back on oil and natural gas usage, on fossil fuel usage in general, not only because the stuff is going to get more and more expensive, but also because it might save security problems in future. It does not seem impossible to us that a lot of guys making and plotting trouble in the Middle East have financial backing from others who make their money from oil. The guys selling oil receive obscene amounts of loot. The less oil we buy from the Middle East, the less money the nasties will get. This makes it more difficult for them to make trouble.
Obviously it would behove the British government to slow down the extraction of oil from the North Sea; try to improve energy efficiency by improving house construction (passive heating and insulation) and public transport, by encouraging cycling and walking, by cutting back on road building programmes and by starting to build an economy that is not based on oil and natural gas. Interestingly enough at the start of the exploitation of North Sea oil Robb Wilmot, the former chairman of ICL, suggested that it would be better to leave the stuff in the ground as it would be worth more in future! There were some moves to use other feedstocks for the chemical industry and other fuels (typically wood, straw, vegetable oils and other forms of biomass) in the mid 1970s and there are a series of American and European efforts today (www.errma.com, www.soci.org/SCI/groups/bsg/2005/reports/html/gs3459.jsp). About 10% of the feedstocks for the German chemical industry and 2% for the American are from renewable sources. These moves are important because the chemical industry not only supplies the frills that make shopping such an adventure - the packaging we have to puncture to get at the cool cotton shirt, but also the fertilisers and pesticides so that the cotton plants can flourish. Not all of these moves are going to be popular. As a good example: Aviation fuel is not taxed to encourage aviation, quite why I don’t know, but if it were taxed this would go someway towards leveling the playing field for other forms of public transport, such as the railways. However this would also begin to make those weekend trips to get dysfunctional in Dublin, legless in Lithuania or plastered in Prague or even to enjoy 4 days of Christmas shopping in New York expensive enough to think twice about doing it. This might not be a bad wheeze, but it would be unpopular with the airlines, the airports, the big and little civil engineering companies extending runways and a lot of punters, so do not expect HM Government to do anything to take steps to be able pull us out of the mess we will be in.
What does it mean for you in the medium term and what can you do? Without taking the drastic step of selling one of the cars, most of us can reduce our car mileage by 10% and our energy use by about 10% by doing a bit of planning. Just as an example or two: If you wish to show your green credentials by recycling the wine bottles, don’t make a special trip. If you need to do a school run by car then try to set up a car pool. Do you have to eat fresh strawberries in the depths of winter? Try buying locally grown food that is in season. Food tastes better then. Grow some of your own food. Start a compost heap. Your friendly council may well give you a composter and a booklet of handy hints to get it turning out first class compost, but then use it to improve the soil quality.
If your first thought when it is suggested that you sell one of the cars is “I can’t get rid of the car/s, because...”, then consider moving house to somewhere nearer work, the shops, school.... If you live way out in the sticks think seriously about selling up and moving nearer to a small town unless you have a functioning branch line at the bottom of the garden. If you already live near to the shops etc. try cycling or walking rather than driving. It has the advantage that you will buy less and still survive. It is worthwhile bringing energy usage (transport, insulation) into the house buying equation along with the quality of the local schools, for example. Think about putting solar water heating panels on the roof and improving the insulation. This can only increase the value of your house.